Advisory

000
WTNT22 KNHC 130231
TCMAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OLGA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL172007
0300 UTC THU DEC 13 2007
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N  77.6W AT 13/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT  11 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  25 KT WITH GUSTS TO  35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N  77.6W AT 13/0300Z
AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.9N  77.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 19.0N  80.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 19.0N  82.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  25 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 19.5N  83.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  25 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 20.0N  85.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  25 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 22.0N  86.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  25 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.9N  77.6W
 
THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS. ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER 
NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 


000
WTNT42 KNHC 130233
TCDAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OLGA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL172007
1000 PM EST WED DEC 12 2007
 
ONCE AGAIN...I HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY TO TERMINATE ANOTHER TROPICAL
CYCLONE THIS SEASON. SATELLITE IMAGES AND RADAR FROM PILON CUBA
SHOW THAT THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS BECOMING LESS DEFINED.
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS STILL ESTABLISHED...BUT THERE HAS NOT
BEEN ANY SIGNIFICANT PERSISTENT CONVECTION FOR ABOUT 12 HOURS OR
SO. THE CYCLONE IS INITIALIZED AS A 25-KNOT TROPICAL DEPRESSION BUT
FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW VERY SOON...PERHAPS AS WE SPEAK.
THERE IS ALWAYS A CHANCE THAT SOME CONVECTION REDEVELOPS
INTERMITTENTLY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AS THE REMNANT LOW
MOVES WESTWARD ABOUT 10 TO 15 KNOTS ACROSS THE WARM WATERS OF THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.  HOWEVER...THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE
TOO STRONG TO ALLOW REINTENSIFICATION...FAMOUS LAST WORDS.  THE
LOW WILL LIKELY BECOME ABSORBED BY AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IN 3
DAYS OR SO OVER THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. 

THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON OLGA UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO
HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      13/0300Z 18.9N  77.6W    25 KT
 12HR VT     13/1200Z 19.0N  80.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 24HR VT     14/0000Z 19.0N  82.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     14/1200Z 19.5N  83.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     15/0000Z 20.0N  85.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     16/0000Z 22.0N  86.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     17/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 


000
WTNT32 KNHC 130232
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OLGA ADVISORY NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL172007
1000 PM EST WED DEC 12 2007
 
...OLGA DEGENERATING INTO A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITH A FEW
SQUALLS... 
 
AT 1000 PM EST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION OLGA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.6 WEST OR ABOUT 80
MILES...130 KM...NORTHWEST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 235 MILES
...380 KM...EAST OF GRAND CAYMAN.
 
THE DEPRESSION HAS SLOWED DOWN AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE WEST
NEAR 13 MPH...21 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS CONFINED TO A FEW SQUALLS NORTH OF THE CENTER.  THE DEPRESSION
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

OLGA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1
TO 2 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...EASTERN CUBA...JAMAICA
AND HISPANIOLA. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 1000 PM EST POSITION...18.9 N...77.6 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 13 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.
 
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS. ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER 
NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA